Diesel prices could surge towards £2 a litre as a global refining crunch threatens to push pump prices higher, campaigners have warned.
FairFuelUK says diesel is already around 190p a litre, despite crude oil prices stabilising, with high refining margins and tightening supplies putting further pressure on prices.
The warning comes after earlier research highlighted the growing financial pressure on motorists, including a reported rise in forecourt fuel theft.
A study from Forecourt Eye previously found a 20% increase in forecourt fuel theft, with almost £200,000 worth of fuel reportedly being stolen every day.
Saul Turner, motoring expert and general manager at National Scrap Car, said the figures reflected the pressure already facing drivers.
“The news that nearly £200,000 worth of fuel is being stolen from UK forecourts every single day is a troubling reflection of just how hard motorists are being hit by the cost of petrol and diesel.
"While taking fuel without paying can never be justified, these figures highlight the extreme pressure currently facing motorists' budgets.”
Earlier National Scrap Car research found 62% of drivers were already seeing their fuel costs rise, with 15% reporting a significant increase and 47% reporting a slight rise.
Turner said: “What we are seeing now with forecourt theft is the escalation of that trend as broader global market pressures push fuel prices even higher.”
Why diesel prices could rise
FairFuelUK says the latest threat is being driven by refining capacity rather than simply the price of crude oil.
It points to several pressures on global diesel supplies, including:
- Russian refining capacity reportedly down around 30% due to strikes
- Russian diesel exports being curtailed
- Persian Gulf refinery throughput reportedly down around 30% amid Hormuz disruption
- Europe's existing diesel deficit
- Global refining margins at four-year highs, according to the IEA
The organisation says the UK has only around 23 to 26 days of reserve cover, leaving prices vulnerable to further disruption.
FairFuelUK says UK diesel could reach 195p to 205p a litre if the refining crunch worsens, although this is a forecast rather than a confirmed future price.
FairFuelUK founder Howard Cox warned: “Diesel is the commercial heartbeat of any economy.
Brent hitting $100 is bad enough, but the real danger now is the diesel refining crunch. Diesel prices aren’t rising because oil is expensive - they’re rising because the world can’t refine enough of it.
"That’s a structural crisis, and it means UK pump prices are about to surge sharply. We’re already near 190p a litre, and without urgent action, diesel could smash through £2 a litre, hammering motorists, hauliers, small businesses and the entire economy.
"More than 40 countries have stepped in to protect drivers and keep inflation down. The UK must do the same - or we’ll sleepwalk into another cost-of-living shock.”
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How drivers can cut fuel costs
While motorists have little control over wholesale fuel prices, Turner said small changes could help reduce the amount spent at the pump.
He recommends:
- Fill up early in the week: Turner says Monday or Tuesday is generally preferable, with prices often rising towards the weekend.
- Use supermarket forecourts: Earlier National Scrap Car research found supermarket fuel could be cheaper than the UK average.
- Consider cooler temperatures: Filling up late at night can technically provide a fraction more fuel because colder fuel is denser, although Turner stresses the saving is only pennies rather than pounds.
FairFuelUK says more than 40 countries have introduced measures including fuel tax cuts, subsidies or price caps since the Iran crisis began. The campaign group says action is needed before further disruption pushes diesel prices even higher.
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